Jakarta (ANTARA) – The Indonesian government has formulated a policy brief for four key development clusters to address and manage the risks posed by the strong El Niño phenomenon.
“We have compiled a policy brief for a cross-sectoral response to a strong El Niño in 2026,” Deputy for Food, Natural Resources, and Environment at the Ministry of National Development Planning, Lenardo A.A. Teguh, said on Tuesday.
According to him, the document identifies risks, maps the distribution of impacts, and formulates response directions within the four key development clusters.
Earlier, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicted a potential strong El Niño phenomenon in Indonesia during the second half of 2026, with extremely low rainfall, below 20 millimeters per month in some regions.
Without early intervention, the risk of national economic losses due to climate change in priority sectors is estimated to reach more than Rp2,000 trillion (US$108 billion), including those exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon.
Therefore, the government has established four main development clusters, with the first being the forest, land, and agriculture cluster, which faces the potential for decreased rainfall and the risk of forest and land fires, particularly in Sumatra and Kalimantan.
Teguh noted that drought threatens food production, particularly rice, oil palm, and coffee. To mitigate the impact, the government will strengthen firefighting and weather modification efforts, activate drilled wells, improve irrigation, distribute drought-resistant seeds, and expand agricultural insurance coverage.
He added that the dry season also presents an opportunity to boost the cultivation of secondary crops, sugar cane, and horticultural commodities.
In the energy and water resources sector, prolonged drought could reduce water reserves and river flows, affecting raw water supplies and hydroelectric power generation. Prepared responses include dredging and maintaining water storage facilities, conserving watersheds, and conducting weather modification operations.
“At the same time, reduced cloud cover opens up opportunities to increase electricity production from solar power plants, including rooftop solar power plants,” Teguh stated.
In the health sector, high temperatures and changing humidity can increase the spread of disease vectors such as dengue and malaria, while dry conditions may also raise the risk of respiratory illnesses.
Therefore, prevention strategies are focused on strengthening surveillance for climate-sensitive diseases, health facility preparedness, ensuring clean water supplies at health care facilities, and communicating risks to the public.
For the aquatic food cluster, Teguh said a stronger El Niño could trigger upwelling that brings nutrients to surface waters, potentially boosting catches of pelagic fish such as skipjack tuna, tuna, and mackerel, while also supporting salt production.
However, changes in water temperature and quality could affect freshwater fisheries and seaweed farming.
Recommended mitigation measures include preparing a production calendar, utilizing oceanographic data, and promoting effective cultivation technologies.
The policy brief identifies Java as the region with the broadest range of impacts, spanning water resources, agriculture, health, and hydropower, while also offering opportunities in sectors such as solar energy and salt production.
Meanwhile, Bali and Nusa Tenggara are expected to face challenges related to water and solar energy. Sulawesi is projected to experience diverse impacts, while Maluku and Papua may benefit from higher capture fisheries productivity but also face risks of water shortages for land-based production.
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Translator: M Baqir Idrus A, Resinta Sulistiyandari
Editor: Azis Kurmala
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