Jakarta (ANTARA) – The Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), alongside other ministries and agencies, has been taking anticipatory measures in recent months as a strengthening El Niño threatens to trigger a drier and prolonged dry season.
During a dialogue in Jakarta on Tuesday, BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani noted that one key measure involves weather modification operations aimed at refilling depleted reservoirs and supporting forest and land fire prevention.
Fathani said that based on BMKG monitoring, the current El Niño has an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index of +1.59, placing it in the strong category.
“Based on data from May, June, and July, the El Niño with an ENSO index of +1.59 is currently strong and has the potential to become very strong,” he explained.
He affirmed that his agency had warned of potential El Niño impacts as early as mid-March 2026, when the phenomenon was still projected to remain in the moderate category.
Subsequently, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) declared El Niño active on June 2.
According to Fathani, El Niño has reduced rainfall across parts of Indonesia, leading to a drier and longer dry season than normal.
Rainfall from August to September 2026 is expected to remain low to very low. Meanwhile, Indonesia is projected to enter the rainy season in mid-October 2026, which will gradually weaken El Niño’s impact on precipitation across the country.
Fathani added that while El Niño is expected to last nine to 12 months through May 2027, this does not mean Indonesia will face a continuous dry season.
“Once the rainy season arrives, the impact of El Niño in Indonesia will no longer be significant,” he said.
BMKG also noted that the impact of El Niño varies across the region, with areas south of the equator – such as East Nusa Tenggara, West Nusa Tenggara, Bali, Java, and southern Sumatra – expected to face a drier and longer dry season than climatological averages.
Meanwhile, regions like the western coast of Sumatra and northern Kalimantan are not expected to see a significant drop in rainfall due to different precipitation patterns.
Fathani warned that El Niño could affect various sectors, including agriculture, clean water supply, reservoir and irrigation management, forest and land fires, energy, health, fisheries, and local economic activity.
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Translator: Shofi Ayudiana, Raka Adji
Editor: Primayanti
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